On January 24, Friedrich Merz gave a keynote speech on his foreign, security and development policy ideas at the Körber Foundation in Hamburg as part of the Global Leader Forum. It was remarkable that he – like the previous governments – attaches great importance to cooperation with Africa. However, the statements and answers that followed raise considerable doubts as to whether Merz’s “grand” strategic plan has really been thought through to the end.
The migration issue
Merz demands that in future, Germany should only provide development cooperation funds to countries in Africa that agree to take back large numbers of refugees from Germany. Merz seems to assume that Germany would have a great deal of leverage with its development cooperation. In reality, however, almost all countries in Africa today have alternatives to cooperation with Germany and the EU. Not only the Chinese, but also Turkey, Brazil, India, the Gulf States and sometimes even Russia. For African governments, the refugee problem is consistently a European problem. They do not feel affected or may have a problem with their own voters if they approach Europe too closely on this issue. With his “eat or die” strategy, Merz risks Germany ending up with at best a handful of cooperation partners in Africa. This does not mean that it is not possible to negotiate agreements with African countries to limit illegal migration and promote legal migration. The EU and the German government are doing this with a certain degree of success. But to have any success at all on this issue requires a great deal of diplomacy and, in particular, an approach that respects the interests of Africans and takes them seriously. Otherwise, it will neither be possible to limit illegal migration from Africa nor to maintain and develop sustainable relations with Africa.
Cooperation with states instead of AU and regional organizations
It is also very problematic that Merz has indicated that he wants to focus more on cooperation with individual states and less on promoting the AU and African regional organizations. Cooperation with the AU and regional organizations was already a hallmark of German Africa policy under Merkel. Now the AU and regional organizations are far from perfect. But what alternative to cooperation is there in view of the many political crises, conflicts and wars in Africa? Who other than the Africans themselves should primarily deal with and contain the conflicts politically? For this, Africa needs a strong AU and strong regional organizations. And how else can we generate sustainable economic growth in Africa other than through strong free trade and currency cooperation? Friedrich Merz is a convinced European. He would certainly object to a policy, for example by the USA, which would result in only talking to individual European countries instead of the EU. Is this problem different in Africa, Mr. Merz?
Delivery commitment a good idea?
Then Merz also demands that in future German development cooperation should largely only be implemented with German (he presumably means European supplies – there is no other way under European law). Is this wise for a country that is as integrated into the global economy as Germany? Hermes insurance for German exports already allows up to 40% of deliveries to come from other countries. Otherwise, many complex projects, where parts come from all over the world, can no longer be realized. And if German companies get involved in rural electrification in Africa – which they are doing – they will have to rely on Chinese solar panels. They are – not all – of high quality and reasonably priced. As suppliers, German companies have benefited greatly from international development cooperation for years. Why should this be called into question with bilateral self-sufficiency efforts?
Regulation of supply chains: an instrument of risk protection
And then Mr. Merz, as he explained in the presentation, would also like to abolish the German Supply Chain Act immediately. This would supposedly impair the competitiveness of German companies. In fact, it is the other way around.
There are prominent German family businesses that have learned the hard way because, when investing in Africa many years ago, they did not observe the due diligence obligations that are now mandatory under the Supply Chain Act. Some of them are still battling millions in compensation claims today. At its core, the Supply Chain Act – bureaucratic simplifications are certainly conceivable and possible – encourages companies to systematically address the various risks of their investments and their supply chain. This is ultimately a good investment and reduces risks. And many committed companies also see it that way. And if companies now take an interest in how the cotton they use in their clothing is grown in Africa, then they are also making a contribution to stabilizing the crisis-ridden Sahel region, where the majority of African cotton comes from.
Conclusion: Merz initially leaps far and in the right direction with his strategic approach. However, he then crashes in the middle of the leap because his announced actions are not guided by foresight but by populist sentiment.
Cover picture: Election campaign event with Friedrich Merz (CDU) in Erfurt 2024, photographer, Steffen Prößdorf; source: Wikipedia
